Five-year-high grain stocks offer India an El Niño buffer
India's central food grain stocks reached a five-year high of 81.75 million tonnes as of May 1, driven by a rebound in wheat procurement. This stock level provides a buffer against potential food inflation and adverse weather conditions during the kharif season, particularly with the India Meteorological Department forecasting monsoon rains at 90% of the long-period average amid emerging El Niño conditions. The government can leverage these reserves to support welfare schemes and manage any production shortfalls effectively.