IMF cuts global growth forecast assuming Strait of Hormuz opens mid-July, but Trump ends ceasefire
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) reduced its global growth forecast for 2026 by 10 basis points to 3%, anticipating the Strait of Hormuz will reopen by mid-July despite escalating tensions following US President Donald Trump's termination of the ceasefire with Iran. The IMF highlighted that renewed conflict in the Middle East poses significant risks, potentially leading to increased commodity prices and supply shortages. Additionally, India's GDP growth forecast for FY27 was slightly lowered to 6.4%.